It is again mid-February with an underperforming Michigan basketball team, so we are back to rooting for mid-majors, such as Boise State, to lose. Let’s look at what needs to happen for Michigan to weasel their way into the postseason.
As it stands, Michigan is widely projected about 10 teams outside of the tournament. However, this does not mean all hope is lost, as the bubble is incredibly weak, and Michigan has ample opportunity to add big wins playing a Big Ten schedule.
Michigan Needs to Win Games
Michigan basketball needs to add a couple of big wins to the resume. Michigan’s strength of schedule to end the season is both a blessing and a curse. They have a Quad 2 home game against Wisconsin and 3 Quad 1 road games against Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana. Wisconsin is a must-win at home, as Michigan cannot afford another Quad 2 loss. The three road games are all against good teams in tough environments, but adding more Quad 1 wins would go far for a team on the bubble.
No matter how you cut it, Michigan needs to add four more wins by the end of the Big Ten Tournament. If Michigan can win out to end the regular season, I can’t imagine a world where Michigan misses the tournament, even if they slip up and drop their first Big Ten tournament game after a double-bye.
If Michigan can win three of the next four, this puts them in a great position to make the tournament. This scenario would add two more quad 1 wins and likely put them in the Last Four headed into the Big Ten tournament. A first-round win there would likely punch their ticket.
With two wins or less, Michigan would enter the conference tournament in desperation mode. Winning two games would not move them far from where they’re currently ranked. In this scenario, Michigan would need a couple of big wins in the tournament. They may be able to sneak in if they can get a second-round matchup with Purdue in the Big Ten tournament and walk out with a win.
Root for MSU, Pitt, and Northwestern
Now that Michigan has a home win over their instate rival, it would be helpful if MSU could move into the NET top 30, making last Saturday another Quad 1 win for a team who needs one. MSU’s next two games are against Indiana and Iowa, so it could happen pretty quickly.
Michigan’s early-season win over Pitt became much more significant when Pitt moved into the NET top 50. As it currently stands, Pitt is ranked No. 50 in the NET, making it a 30-point Quad 1 win for the Wolverines. If Pitt can avoid a bad loss by the end of the season, they should stay there, and Michigan would be very grateful.
The road win in Evanston is far-and-away Michigan basketball’s best win of the year. The 17-point win over the Wildcats felt good at the time, but now it’s even better. Northwestern has since won five straight, jumped into the AP Rankings, and stands alone at 2nd in the Big Ten. A couple more wins for them would only help Michigan’s case. Mountain West Chaos
For the second year in a row, the Mountain West has the potential to get 4-5 teams in the NCAA tournament. San Diego State is a lock, currently projected as a 6 seed. Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah State are all clinging on the bubble. If these 4 teams can all beat each other up or drop a game to lesser teams in the conference while San Diego State cruises and earns the auto-bid, this would be very beneficial to bubble teams like Michigan basketball who are looking to move up.
Big Ten Bubble Teams
The other two Big Ten teams fighting for their lives are Penn State and Wisconsin. Penn State was left for dead after dropping four straight games but resurrected their chances with a big win over Illinois. Penn State ends the season with OSU, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Maryland, while Wisconsin has Iowa, Michigan, Purdue, and Minnesota. If both teams can finish 2-2 or worse, Michigan basketball could likely jump them.
The Final Nail in UNC’s Coffin
UNC is allergic to winning big games, yet bracketologists refuse to move them out of consideration. They are 16-11 overall, 8-8 in a very weak ACC and an astounding 0-8 in Quad 1 games.
If they were any other team in the country, they would be nowhere near the field of 68, yet here we are. If they drop a road game against a lesser team like Notre Dame or Florida State, we can finally stop pretending that they deserve a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Bid-Stealers
The last thing that Michigan basketball needs is to end the season strong and have their spot taken by a bid-stealer in the conference tournament. It nearly happened to Michigan State in 2021 when Oregon State and Georgetown went on miracle runs in their conference tournaments.
When looking at the conference breakdowns, there isn’t much opportunity for bid stealers this year unless we get a crazy run. Of the power six conferences, it seems very unlikely to see a bid stolen. The Pac-12 is the most likely, but a potential bid-stealer would have to go through juggernauts UCLA and Arizona.
Of the other multi-bid conferences, Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s will likely win the WCC, Houston looms over the American, and it seems unlikely a Mountain West team who isn’t already on the bubble will win their tournament.
That means Michigan basketball is immune to bid-stealers, right? RIGHT? That would make sense if it weren’t for the Charleston Cougars of the Colonial Athletic Association. Charleston currently sits at No. 52 in the NET with an impressive 26-3 overall record. They even have a win over Virginia Tech. That’s good enough to potentially earn them an at-large bid.
The doomsday scenario comes if Charleston wins out until their conference championship and then proceeds to lose, likely to Hofstra. Hofstra would then get the auto-bid, Charleston can and likely will make it as an at-large team, and there is now one less bubble spot because of the multi-bid Colonial Athletic Association. So, in the meantime, go Cougars!
Other Bubble Teams
Some teams Michigan could jump that aren’t mentioned above are Memphis, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, West Virginia, USC, Oregon, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Seton Hall, and Utah. In general, Michigan needs teams on the bubble to lose games. It’s more likely to see Pac-12 teams fall off the bubble than Big 12 teams due to their strength of schedule, but none of these teams are immune to late-season collapses.
It may seem like Michigan basketball needs a lot to go their way to get a spot in the postseason, and for the most part, that’s true, but it’s not all that unlikely. The bubble is notorious for featuring a lot of teams with nothing better to do than choke away their season. A lot of this will likely take care of it on its own. Michigan’s games are far and away the most important part in getting them into the tournament, but all the other teams are still worth keeping track of.
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