What’s the ceiling and floor for Michigan football?

Michigan football is heading into one of the most interesting seasons in its history. The Wolverines are the defending national champions but have also undergone massive changes.

The Wolverines lost their head coach to the NFL, plus more than 15 players who were drafted or signed as rookie free agents. However, Sherrone Moore has taken over as head coach, and four players who are projected to be first-round picks remain.

Michigan football will have one of the best defenses in college football. The Wolverines also have one of the EA Sports College Football 25 cover athletes in Donovan Edwards, who should have a dominant season now that he’s going to be RB1 for the first time.

The quarterback position is the big question mark. Michigan football also doesn’t have the depth it had last season. There was a reason Team 144 won the national title. It had incredible high-end talent but also amazing depth.

What’s in store for the 2024 Michigan football season?

It remains to be seen if Michigan has the depth to get back to the playoff or a national title contender. That’s going to depend greatly on the quarterback position. Alex Orji, Davis Warren, and Jack Tuttle are the top contenders in my book, but regardless of who starts, Orji should have a big role on the ground.

J.J. McCarthy wasn’t used much in the run game last season, so opposing defenses didn’t have to play the QB much in the zone read. That will change in 2024.

So the running game could be even more productive than last season. People forget that it struggled to get going at times in 2023. The offensive line will need to step up, but I’m not worried about that group, other than I wish there was more depth, especially at tackle.

The schedule is brutal. Ohio State is loaded with talent and veterans. Oregon is loaded too. Michigan gets the Ducks at home along with USC and Texas. Yet, there are trips to Washington and OSU. Indiana and Illinois are the other road games.

So what’s the ceiling and what’s the floor? We’ll tackle each.

The ceiling for 2024

I’d say the ceiling is winning a fourth consecutive Big Ten championship. The Wolverines have a tough schedule but getting back to the Big Ten title game seems realistic.

Michigan football is going to have to win against Oregon at home or Ohio State on the road to reach the title game. USC is another tough game and people seem to forget that but the Trojans are also ranked in the top 15 and come to Ann Arbor in the first month of the season.

Honestly, winning that game is more important than Texas in the Big Ten race. Yet, if Michigan football can beat the Horns, they could make the playoff without being Ohio State or Oregon, as long as they beat either USC or Washington.

A 9-3 record with a win over Texas, assuming the Longhorns are as good as we think they’ll be, could be enough. A 9-3 record with wins over USC and Washington might be enough but it will depend on the rest of the at-large teams.

But winning the Big Ten and making the playoff are the ceiling. What about the floor?

What’s the floor?

I have a hard time seeing the Wolverines winning fewer than eight games. The five toughest on the schedule are Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Washington, and USC. But upsets are always possible.

The road trip to Washington could be tricky. Jedd Fisch is a smart coach but the Huskies lost even more talent than Michigan football. They also don’t return as much.

With what could be the best defense in college football, 9-10 wins seem likely. However, if the offense really struggles an eight-win season is possible. That wouldn’t be good enough to make the playoff and would be a disappointment, but again, that’s the worst-case scenario.

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