Michigan football playoff odds according to ESPN FPI

Michigan football is the defending national champion but not very many people are talking about the possibility of a repeat.

That’s because Ohio State and Georgia are expected to be elite. Oregon, Texas, and Alabama are right there too. Michigan football could work its way into the mix, but it’s going to take some development, especially from the quarterback position but also at wide receiver, in the secondary, and on the offensive line.

The good news is that Sherrone Moore is elite at development. That’s how his offensive lines won the Joe Moore Award two years in a row.

Still, the ESPN FPI isn’t a huge believer in Michigan football right now, ranking the Wolverines 12th in the post-spring update. Part of that has to do with the schedule. Michigan has to play Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, USC, and Washington.

That’s one of the most difficult schedules in all of college football. It helps that three of those games are on the road. It also helps that Michigan doesn’t have to win every game or nearly every game in order to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.

18 teams have a 20% or more chance of making the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN's computer-generated FPI👀

🐶Georgia 79%
🦆Oregon 76%
🤘Texas 68%
🌰Ohio State 67%
🍀Notre Dame 60%
🦁Penn State 59%
🐘Alabama 57%
🐯Missouri 37.3%
🍊Tennessee 36.9%
⭕️Oklahoma 36.6%… pic.twitter.com/c82qAC7WRz

— On3 (@On3sports) June 8, 2024

The ESPN FPI gives Michigan a 29 percent chance to make the playoff. The Wolverines are one of 18 teams with a better than 20 percent chance of making the 12-team field. So there is room for variance. U-M will need to win one of its marquee matchups but if it does, a nine or 10-win season should be enough.

Oregon is at 76 percent, which leads the Big Ten. Ohio State is second at 67 and Penn State is at 58 percent, which is a reflection of the schedule.

That shows that even though many are overlooking the Wolverines, there’s still a good chance they’ll be in the College Football Playoff with a chance to defend their title.

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