Michigan basketball draws Toledo in the NIT first round

With ‘Selection Sunday’ come and gone, what every Wolverine fan already knew has become official. Michigan basketball will miss the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2015. This is undoubtedly a disappointing way for the 2022-23 season to finish for fans, but it should not surprise anyone.

Going into last weekend’s Big Ten tournament, most knew that the Wolverines needed to win, or at least make a deep run, to make the field of 68. Those hopes were dashed rather quickly, as Michigan fell swiftly and in embarrassing fashion to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the opening round, 62-50.

Now, many questions arise over the direction of the men’s basketball program, primarily regarding where exactly it goes from here. Wolverine fans didn’t have to wait long to find out, as it was announced late Sunday night that Michigan would be a No. 3 seed in the NIT tournament and face the MAC conference regular season champions, the Rockets of Toledo. The opening round game will tip-off Tuesday at 7 p.m. EST at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor.

A look at the Rockets

The Toledo Rockets will head into the NIT tournament undeniably disappointed and ready to win after missing out on what could have been their first NCAA tournament appearance since 1980. After tearing through the MAC regular season with an impressive 16-2 record, Toledo lost their automatic bid to Kent State in the MAC tournament championship game, 93-78.

This loss came after winning 17 straight games, going back to early January. Interestingly enough, the Rockets’ last loss before the MAC tournament also came against Kent State, in a 75-63 decision in Kent, OH. The only other MAC opponent to beat the Rockets came against Ball State in the conference opener.

Toledo went 9-4 in their non-conference slate, including impressive wins over UAB (25-9), Northern Kentucky (22-12), who just won the Horizon League tournament and punched their ticket to ‘March Madness’ for just the third time in school history, and Vermont (23-10), who will also be joining NKU in the NCAA tournament after winning the American East conference regular season and tournament.

Michigan basketball and Toledo shared one common opponent on the season, Central Michigan, who likely cost the Wolverines an at-large bid with their stunning upset in Ann Arbor earlier this year. Toledo handled their business against the Chippewas this season, winning both matchups by comfortable, twenty-plus point margins.

Offense a-plenty

Michigan basketball will be tasked with facing one of the most potent offenses in the nation, as they average a whopping 85.7 points per game this season, good for second behind only Gonzaga. With all that scoring, it’s unsurprising that Toledo shoots the ball well, as they rank 4th in the nation in total field goal percentage shooting 49.6 percent on the year. Even more impressively, the Rockets shot 40.5 percent from three-point range, which is good for second in the country.

Toledo is led in scoring by senior guard Rayj Dennis (19.8 points per game), to go along with three other double-digit scorers: Setric Millner (16.2), JT Shumate (16.1) and Dante Maddux (11.4). The offense doesn’t stop there, though, as Tyler Cochran (9.6) and Ra’Heim Moss (8.3) are also close to the mark. Millner leads the team in rebounding (5.9 per game), while Dennis tops the team in assists (5.7).

Defense not so much

For as good as the offense is, the flip side of that coin, and what ultimately kept them out of the ‘Big Dance,’ is Toledo’s defense, which ranks an abysmal 321st in the nation in scoring, giving up 76.1 points per game. Toledo also doesn’t rebound the basketball efficiently, as they currently rank 202nd in the country with just 34.5 rebounds per game. To go along with the poor effort on the glass, the Rockets turn the ball over 9.7 times per game, ranking 8th in the nation.

The Rockets will also face a considerable size deficit, as no significant contributor stands taller than 6-foot-7 (Shumate). One key to a Michigan basketball victory could come down low in the post, as Hunter Dickinson (7-foot-1) and Tarris Reed Jr. (6-foot-10) should have plenty of opportunities to dominate the Rockets’ smaller lineup. This isn’t to say Toledo has no height at all, as AJ Edu (6-foot-10) and Andre Lorrentsson (6-foot-8) could match up well with Michigan bigs, but neither average more than 12.2 minutes, or 2.7 points per game.

Altogether, the game will be a decently tough matchup for the Wolverines, which may surprise some considering it’s the first round of the NIT. Still, it’s by no means an unwinnable game for Michigan, especially being at home in the Crisler Center. At home, the Wolverines posted a 13-5 record this season and only have two losses this calendar year, both to tournament teams (Purdue and Indiana).

A little history

Michigan basketball has faced the Toledo Rockets thirteen times in school history but boasts a disappointing 7-6 record against them. To be fair, the Wolverines are a much better 3-0 since 1980, and three of the losses came pre-1970 (1968, 1950, 1948). Michigan won the only matchup since 1984, a 91-71 final during the 2020-’21 season.

The Rockets have appeared in 10 NIT tournaments but will be looking to win their first game since 2001. Michigan, meanwhile, has appeared in 11 NIT tournaments and won three (1984, 1997, 2004), although the 1997 title was vacated due to NCAA sanctions.

The game also adds a bit of a ‘revenge factor’ for Michigan football fans, as many undoubtedly remember Toledo handing the Wolverines their worst loss in modern school history. It was a woeful 13-10 final at ‘The Big House’ in Rich Rodriguez’s first season in 2008. This is still the football team’s lone loss to a MAC opponent ever.

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