Michigan basketball gets ready for bounceback season

ANN ARBOR, MI – It’s finally that time of the year. The leaves are falling, the sun sets in the blink of an eye, and the Wolverines are returning to the hardwood. Michigan basketball is coming off its worst performance since 2015, when John Beilein was still at the helm. The Wolverines lost all of their double-digit scorers in Hunter Dickinson (transferred to Kansas), Jett Howard (NBA draft), and Kobe Bufkin (NBA draft). Michigan also missed out on star North Carolina transfer Caleb Love due to an admissions issue; yet, there still remains a healthy dose of optimism entering Juwan Howard’s 5th season at the wheel.

Major changes and more for Michigan basketball

Mar 16, 2022; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Juwan Howard during practice before the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

Juwan Howard hits the transfer portal

There has been a mix with this Michigan basketball team between veteran transfers and young, in-house talent that we have not seen Head Coach Juwan Howard formulate before. For the first time in the Howard era, there will be 3 transfers getting impactful minutes. This spring, forward Tray Jackson (Seton Hall), forward Olivier Nkamhoua (Tennessee), and guard Nimari Burnett (Alabama) all decided to make the move to Ann Arbor.

Michigan basketball has a completely different look this year. But, the addition by subtraction has the potential to bring the Wolverines back into the tournament after their first miss during Juwan Howard’s tenure. With 3 of their top 6 players being transfers, it will be exciting to see how the team works together. 

In the first glimpse of the new transfer trio, their minutes were definitely impactful. Tray lit up the scoreboard with 20 points on 8-10 shooting, Olivier stuffed the stat sheet with 11 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 blocks, and Nimari scored 9 points along with 6 assists. Although exhibition games should be looked at with a grain of salt, especially against a Division-2 school, this immediate production is a good sign.

One transfer, specifically, has garnered the utmost respect from teammates already, earning the honor of captain. For the first time under Juwan Howard, the players voted for their captains, and Olivier Nkamhoua racked up the votes, including point guard Dug McDaniel’s. Martelli also noted that Nkamhoua has been a “grown-up” ever since he stepped foot in Ann Arbor.

The high praise for one of the most coveted transfers in the portal this past off-season is a relief to any concern about leadership within the team. 

Sophomore breakout candidates

Nov 29, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Jaelin Llewellyn (3) dribbles in the first half against the Virginia Cavaliers at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

On the other end of the spectrum are two sophomores who are expected to make significant leaps from their freshman years in Ann Arbor. Both guard Dug McDaniel and forward Tarris Reed Jr. are starters that have been tagged as “breakout” candidates. 

With Jaelin Llewellyn still recovering from a torn ACL and Jace Howard out 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his right knee and tibia, Dug McDaniel is set up to be playing extended minutes in the early going. In yesterday’s presser, Dug acknowledged this, saying that he was “ready for that” and there is “no pressure.” The maturity of McDaniel, along with his experience from starting 26 games last year, sets the sophomore up for a strong chance of breaking out.

Meanwhile, the other sophomore breakout candidate has the raw talent and skill to control the paint on both ends of the court. In the exhibition, it was clear that the Wolverines were looking to get Tarris Reed Jr. very involved in the paint early. In Reed Jr.’s 11 minutes of play, he tallied a 13-point, 10 rebound double-double. Tarris also added 3 steals and a block to the stat sheet. He did all of this without playing in the second half.

The report after the game was that Reed Jr. took himself out of the game due to a tweaked groin that happened in practice 5-6 days prior. This should not be of much worry, as Coach Martelli said that he was “fine.” All signs point to Tarris suiting up and starting in tonight’s home opener vs. UNC Asheville.

Michigan basketball freshman star?

Michigan guard George Washington III practices with guard Dug McDaniel during media day at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2023.

Another player who is set up for an extended run of playing time at the start of the season is freshman George Washington III. The 4-star Gatorade Ohio Basketball Player of the Year has garnered a lot of confidence already from interim Head Coach Phil Martelli. Despite George’s subpar 3/12 shooting performance in the exhibition game, Martelli said yesterday that “if he got 12 shots tomorrow night, I’d bet on him making 75%.” Coach also proclaimed that Washington III was one of the best shooters in practices. The freshman has a golden opportunity to prove himself right out of the gate. 

Forwards galore

Jan 1, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Terrance Williams II shoots a free throw against the Maryland Terrapins during the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

The last starter to keep an eye on tonight is Terrance Williams II. After struggling last year, especially behind the arc (25%), Williams II has changed his shot form. Despite missing both his 3-point attempts in the exhibition, he still converted 50% from the field. With Tray Jackson lighting it up in the same game, there were questions about who would get the starting nod to open the season. Martelli shot that down quickly, confirming that “TWill is ahead of him in the depth chart.” With the added pressure of Tray being right behind him, though, it will be interesting to see how Terrance responds on the court.

Finally, rounding out the rotation are a pair of sophomore forwards. Depth has been a question, and Will Tschetter and Youssef (YoYo) Khayat can be the answer. Both did not play much last year but will be needed at times to help the second unit flourish. Coach Martelli has been mentioning YoYo in the same conversations as George when it comes to minutes. It seems like these 2 will be competing for that 5th forward spot.

Michigan basketball predictions

Jan 12, 2016; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; A general view during the second half of the game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Maryland Terrapins at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

With the rotation and players laid out, it’s time to make some predictions. Shoutout to Ethan Bock at WVSports Now for the format.

Individual Predictions

Team MVP: Dug McDaniel

Best Shooter: George Washington III

X-Factor: Olivier Nkamhoua

Glue Guy: Tarris Reed Jr.

Most Valuable Underclassman: Dug McDaniel

Point Leader: Dug McDaniel

Assist Leader: Dug McDaniel

Rebound Leader: Tarris Reed Jr.

Steal Leader: Dug McDaniel

Block Leader: Olivier Nkamhoua

Team Prediction

Record: 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten)

Michigan basketball has been overlooked after last year’s team fell flat on its face. There are simply too many impactful guys on this roster for the Wolverines not to make the tournament. As mentioned before, last year’s Michigan basketball team was the first one not to make the tournament with Juwan Howard at the helm. That was not ordinary; it was an anomaly.

With the expectation that Dug is going to have a breakout season, there are many options besides him to elevate the guard play to a high level. Whether it be Alabama transfer Nimari Burnett, veteran grad Jaelin Llewellyn, captain Jace Howard, or rookie George Washington III, Juwan will have a plethora to work with to set the backcourt up for success. Pairing this with a slew of big men who have shown glimpses of scoring and defending at an elite level, there is a lot of potential with this team.

Now, of course, this is all the best-case scenario. What happens if Dug and Tarris don’t play to their potential? What if Jaelin never fully recovered from the ACL injury? What if the end-game offensive woes return? The great thing is that there are options for Juwan Howard no matter what happens. Although a minute sample size, the 3-point shooting looked heavily improved in the exhibition against Northwood. All 3 transfers made at least 1 three, with Tray and Nimari both knocking down 3. 

The new formula that Juwan Howard has concocted between returning talent and outside talent has proved to be game-changing for other programs. We will see if the same can be said for Michigan basketball this year, starting tonight at 8:30 pm EST against the UNC Asheville Bulldogs.

And. Here. We. Go!

🆚 UNC Asheville
➡️ https://t.co/GYCZXEMdX4
⏳ | 8:30 p.m.
🏟 | Crisler Center
📺 | BTN
💻 | https://t.co/uWYy73lcTN
📻 | https://t.co/NGAFXuN0yO
📊 | https://t.co/TYk9adbQpJ
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🎫 | https://t.co/DkNelFQvDI#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/Ml54Fr6jpn

— Michigan Men’s Basketball (@umichbball) November 7, 2023

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