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Michigan Football News: 2 Most Likely CFP Outcomes

Here are the two most likely College Football Playoff outcomes for Michigan football as things stand right now.

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Michigan football, Rose Bowl, College Football Playoff, Oregon, Florida State
Dec 31, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) warms up before their game against the TCU Horned Frogs in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

On Tuesday, the Michigan football team (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) moved to No. 2 in the nation following its impressive 30-24 win over the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1, 8-1) a few days ago. Heading into this Saturday’s Big Ten title game against No. 16 Iowa (10-2, 7-2), the Maize and Blue are looking at a potential three-peat conference championship performance, which would punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff in early January, perhaps leading to the program’s first national title since 1997, when Lloyd Carr won the Rose Bowl. Will U-M face No. 5 Oregon, No. 4 Florida State, No. 8 Alabama, or someone else in the semi-final? Let’s break it down.

Michigan football likely to play in the Rose Bowl as the No. 2 team

Now, I am not one to count the Alabama Crimson Tide out, especially with Nick Saban and company sitting at 11-1 overall right now. That said, it seems quite likely that Bama will lose to the Bulldogs this weekend, sending UGA to the playoff with a 13-0 record and ranked No. 1 in the country.

In tonight’s newest College Football Playoff rankings, Michigan football comes in at No. 2 in the country, with a shot at improving to 13-0 against Iowa this weekend if the Wolverines can down the Hawkeyes, winning the Big Ten for a third straight year.

A win this weekend would mean that Michigan heads to the CFP and will likely play in the Rose Bowl game, assuming Georgia stays at No. 1 and takes and Sugar Bowl.

Florida State

The first team that many analysts have Michigan football matched up against in their current CFP projections is the Florida State Seminoles, who are 12-0 heading into the ACC title game against Louisville this weekend. Now, a major reason that FSU is undefeated right now is star quarterback Jordan Travis, who suffered a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, substantially weakening Florida State’s shot at a national title.

Still, if the Noles can improve to 13-0 overall with an ACC title, there is a good chance that their unbeaten status will pin them as the No. 3 team in the country — right behind Georgia and Michigan football. If that is the case, and the CFP committee honors FSU’s 13-0 record, there is a likelihood that No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Florida State will square off in the Rose Bowl for a shot at the national title game.

Oregon/Washington

Perhaps the most anticipated conference title game this weekend will take place in the PAC-12; in fact, this Saturday will showcase the final PAC-12 football game to ever be played, when Oregon (11-1) and Washington (12-0) face off for the conference and a trip to the College Football Playoff. Earlier this year, the Huskies narrowly beat the Ducks at home; however, Oregon shot itself in the foot time and time again and is currently favored to get its revenge and win the PAC-12 title.

As I said, Florida State is without its top player — Jordan Travis — and has been struggling as of late. If FSU fails to win the ACC impressively, there is a good chance that either Oregon or Washington (depending on who wins the PAC-12) will get in at No. 3 and face Michigan football. Once again, in this situation, Michigan would be at No. 2, and the PAC-12 champion would be at No. 3 — one final Big Ten vs. PAC-12 Rose Bowl game for a shot at winning the national title.

We have to wait and see how conference title weekend plays out, but right now, most analysts are picking Michigan football to land at the Rose Bowl, facing either Florida State or Oregon in the CFP semi-final.



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CJ has covered college athletics in paid roles for around five years, including numerous sports and beats. His most recent work revolves largely around Penn State and Michigan football and basketball as a member of the credentialed media at both schools. Right now, CJ writes for Blue by Ninety, where he also serves as the site's credentialed football reporter. He also does some credentialed basketball coverage. Previously, CJ has made stops with sites like GBMWolverine, Saturday Blitz, Steeler Nation, and more.

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